Michael Bloomberg’s Campaign Is Huge. That’s The Point

RALEIGH, North Carolina — Michael Bloomberg is not a tall man. But his presidential campaign is very big. The sheer hugeness of the former New York City mayor’s campaign is its defining feature. It is the Death Star of presidential campaigns. Bloomberg employs more — much more — staff than any other candidate, and pays

Elizabeth Warren Stumbled In New Hampshire’s Primary. She Still Did Selfies.

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire — Elizabeth Warren had lost, badly, in a state next door to her own. She ran up onto the stage without her usual introduction and sped through a speech from a podium, and not long after the polls had closed, it was over. Except for the selfie line, the fixture of Warren’s

Goodbye To Andrew Yang, 2020’s Most Unexpectedly Successful Losing Candidate

Not a single Democratic candidate dropped out of the race after the Iowa caucuses — no doubt because of the messy result there. But the early states have now started to do their traditional job of winnowing the field. It just took the New Hampshire primary to get things going. The first to go: Andrew

What Are The X-Factors That Could Shake Up New Hampshire?

Welcome to a special edition of FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): It’s hard to believe that last Monday was the Iowa caucuses and now, it’s time for New Hampshire to vote for a Democratic nominee tomorrow. Obviously, we missed the big X factor of

Joe Biden Is Preparing For The Worst In New Hampshire

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire — Is it too late for Joe Biden? On Saturday afternoon in the first primary state, that question was as loaded as can be. Days earlier he had finished a distant fourth in Iowa. At the debate the night before he had effectively conceded New Hampshire. And at the moment Biden was

How Iowa’s Three Different Votes Could Affect Who ‘Wins’

If you’re an electoral politics junkie, you may have already read something about how Iowa could actually produce three different winners (!) on Monday night. What the heck does that actually mean? Let me explain — while also giving you some insight into how our forecast model handles these different versions of the vote count,

He Might Win Iowa. But Don’t Ask Bernie Sanders How He’s Feeling.

IOWA CITY, Iowa — Was he in a better mood than usual? A campaign spokesperson, Mike Casca, shrugged: not particularly, no. There were hints, at least, to the contrary. Maybe. In Iowa City, after he cut in on his wife Jane’s speech at a coffee shop, the two wrestled flirtatiously over the microphone: “I’m gonna

What Our Forecast Says About The Iowa Caucuses At The District Level

Tonight’s Iowa caucuses kick off a multi-step process that will eventually send 41 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. But did you know that only 14 of them are assigned to candidates based on their statewide results in Iowa? The remaining 27 are based on the results in each of the Hawkeye State’s four

Bernie Sanders Says the US Must End Its ‘Colonial-Type Relationship’ With Puerto Rico

Ripping into the “vulture capitalists” and political elites who favor debt-restructuring schemes that penalize Puerto Rico’s poor and working-class families, Bernie Sanders brought his populist presidential bid to San Juan Monday. And as he has throughout his run for the 2016 Democratic nomination, Sanders argued that democratic options must be expanded in order to let